Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians

Sat 9/19 · 5:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.0

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 47%

TOTAL

no lean

model 50% under · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate34%

Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year — more called strikes21%

Wind blowing out, ~3 mph netagainst the under20%

The away team playing like a .372 club right now17%

Starting pitchers leans overagainst the under7%

Market: First-5-innings Under 4.0 at +104 (pinnacle, quoted 4:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.4 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpen

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.5279020672853808,
  "model_mu": 3.8646304853892963,
  "market_p": 0.5295629820051414,
  "divergence": -0.05757148681478386,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.2928,
    "contribution": -0.13445,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net",
    "share": 0.2479,
    "contribution": 0.11386,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.2131,
    "contribution": -0.09787,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .372 club right now",
    "share": 0.1717,
    "contribution": -0.07887,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
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  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T21:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "battery",
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    "share": 0.3359,
    "contribution": -0.15358,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
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    "share": 0.214,
    "contribution": -0.09787,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~3 mph net",
    "share": 0.2028,
    "contribution": 0.09274,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
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    ]
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    "family": "starters",
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    ]
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  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2739,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2274,
    "contribution": -0.07837,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
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    "share": 0.1755,
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    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.171,
    "contribution": 0.05891,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives pitchers the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1522,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "rung": "l1",
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  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2899,
    "contribution": -0.0944,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "h_ra30",
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
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    "share": 0.2037,
    "contribution": -0.06633,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
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   },
   {
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     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]