Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46103462063306855,
"p_shipped": 0.4972104318435986,
"model_mu": 3.730653623398077,
"market_p": 0.5012987012987012,
"divergence": -0.040264080665632695,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.4711,
"contribution": -0.13178,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 495 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2827,
"contribution": -0.07907,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0912,
"contribution": -0.0255,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.078,
"contribution": 0.02183,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.077,
"contribution": -0.02154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T16:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4702597647165758,
"p_shipped": 0.47584271085671864,
"model_mu": 4.359657973626061,
"market_p": 0.4793814432989691,
"divergence": -0.009121678582393267,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T16:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.5232,
"contribution": -0.19363,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2211,
"contribution": 0.08181,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 495 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2136,
"contribution": -0.07907,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0235,
"contribution": 0.00869,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0186,
"contribution": -0.00689,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5511673415608944,
"p_shipped": 0.5035588727238874,
"model_mu": 7.064915864698365,
"market_p": 0.5103626943005183,
"divergence": 0.04080464726037614,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2975,
"contribution": -0.18223,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2193,
"contribution": 0.13433,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Both teams' bullpens worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2071,
"contribution": 0.12687,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1926,
"contribution": 0.118,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0834,
"contribution": -0.05109,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T16:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5476121338201876,
"p_shipped": 0.5018503485266541,
"model_mu": 8.019340930839615,
"market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
"divergence": 0.04375609268908209,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T16:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2684,
"contribution": -0.18223,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2228,
"contribution": 0.15125,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.2111,
"contribution": 0.14329,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Both teams' bullpens worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1869,
"contribution": 0.12687,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1109,
"contribution": -0.07529,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
}
]