Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.3611332622634761,
"p_shipped": 0.45470900242670176,
"model_mu": 3.6234718774899197,
"market_p": 0.4792746113989638,
"divergence": -0.11814134913548774,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.2986,
"contribution": -0.13347,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2882,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .374 club right now",
"share": 0.1914,
"contribution": -0.08554,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1014,
"contribution": -0.04531,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~7 mph net",
"share": 0.0789,
"contribution": -0.03524,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0415,
"contribution": -0.01856,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_opener",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4129800082705903,
"p_shipped": 0.5046666477987257,
"model_mu": 7.256051079091732,
"market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
"divergence": -0.09606391937798847,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3102,
"contribution": -0.14681,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2039,
"contribution": -0.09648,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1646,
"contribution": 0.07789,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1361,
"contribution": -0.06439,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1254,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
"share": 0.0598,
"contribution": -0.02832,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
}
]