SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 6:10 PM CDT

Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians

Fri 9/18 · 6:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: unknown
FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 5.0
B
B cards like this have won 49% under · market 52%
TOTAL · UNDER 8.5 RUNS
B
B cards like this have won 52% under · market 49% · stake 0.5u
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 12-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate30%
The away team playing like a .374 club right now19%
The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games10%
Wind blowing in, ~7 mph net8%
Starting pitchers leans under — mostly the away team4%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No recent umpire zone reading against the league — graded on league-typical assumptions29%
Market: First-5-innings Under 5.0 at -118 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · model expects ~3.6 runs · divergence 12 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.
TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3611332622634761,
  "p_shipped": 0.45470900242670176,
  "model_mu": 3.6234718774899197,
  "market_p": 0.4792746113989638,
  "divergence": -0.11814134913548774,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.2986,
    "contribution": -0.13347,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2882,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .374 club right now",
    "share": 0.1914,
    "contribution": -0.08554,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1014,
    "contribution": -0.04531,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~7 mph net",
    "share": 0.0789,
    "contribution": -0.03524,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0415,
    "contribution": -0.01856,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4129800082705903,
  "p_shipped": 0.5046666477987257,
  "model_mu": 7.256051079091732,
  "market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
  "divergence": -0.09606391937798847,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3102,
    "contribution": -0.14681,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2039,
    "contribution": -0.09648,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1646,
    "contribution": 0.07789,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_k_pct30",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1361,
    "contribution": -0.06439,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1254,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.0598,
    "contribution": -0.02832,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]