Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

Fri 9/4 · 6:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: unknown

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 53%

TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 7-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate30%

The home starter has thrown 459 pitches over 30 days15%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games14%

Park & environment leans overagainst the under9%

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the home team2%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No recent umpire zone reading against the league — graded on league-typical assumptions31%

Market: First-5-innings Under 4.5 at -119 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~3.9 runs · divergence 7 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 4.5 -119 → closed -119 · unchanged

TOTALanchor Under 8.0 runs -108 → closed -114 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

September call-up lineupSecond game of a doubleheader

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.41436778297731286,
  "p_shipped": 0.4584289973364064,
  "model_mu": 3.9729726590383567,
  "market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
  "divergence": -0.07142033071777754,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2968,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.2805,
    "contribution": -0.12171,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 459 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.1411,
    "contribution": -0.06122,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_days_rest_miss",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.132,
    "contribution": -0.05729,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1316,
    "contribution": 0.0571,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0181,
    "contribution": -0.00785,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4090501724000744,
  "p_shipped": 0.4463238263355468,
  "model_mu": 3.927607064630559,
  "market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
  "divergence": -0.06517663172363691,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.3126,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.2954,
    "contribution": -0.12171,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 459 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.1486,
    "contribution": -0.06122,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_days_rest_miss",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.139,
    "contribution": -0.05729,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0853,
    "contribution": 0.03515,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0191,
    "contribution": -0.00785,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.4895048637604653,
  "model_mu": 6.98472814082543,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": -0.05574278250588938,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3258,
    "contribution": -0.14777,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "MLB debut for the away starter",
    "share": 0.2367,
    "contribution": -0.10736,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_debut",
     "a_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1487,
    "contribution": 0.06747,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_recent_debuts",
     "h_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1309,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1075,
    "contribution": 0.04878,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0503,
    "contribution": -0.02283,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.44019283513887303,
  "p_shipped": 0.4879625989195462,
  "model_mu": 6.945174119126778,
  "market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
  "divergence": -0.05722984527349817,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3381,
    "contribution": -0.14777,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "MLB debut for the away starter",
    "share": 0.2456,
    "contribution": -0.10736,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_debut",
     "a_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1544,
    "contribution": 0.06747,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_recent_debuts",
     "h_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1358,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0739,
    "contribution": 0.0323,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0522,
    "contribution": -0.02283,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]