Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.47465806719266357,
"p_shipped": 0.4587565537595041,
"model_mu": 4.323367027207674,
"market_p": 0.46649484536082475,
"divergence": 0.008163221831838818,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.3112,
"contribution": -0.12659,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1951,
"contribution": -0.07935,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Hitter-friendly umpire zone",
"share": 0.1864,
"contribution": 0.07583,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 479 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1642,
"contribution": -0.06677,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1432,
"contribution": 0.05823,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T16:00:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5043503977920444,
"p_shipped": 0.5124455017766841,
"model_mu": 4.764971190746353,
"market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
"divergence": -0.017613426497361306,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T16:00:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.3497,
"contribution": -0.13457,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Hitter-friendly umpire zone",
"share": 0.197,
"contribution": 0.07583,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 479 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1735,
"contribution": -0.06677,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1445,
"contribution": 0.05561,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1353,
"contribution": 0.05205,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5628194176348272,
"p_shipped": 0.4855032557265311,
"model_mu": 7.898942448202085,
"market_p": 0.48205128205128206,
"divergence": 0.08076813558354518,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2893,
"contribution": 0.19937,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2201,
"contribution": -0.15166,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2065,
"contribution": -0.14234,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1439,
"contribution": 0.09914,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.1403,
"contribution": 0.09668,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T16:00:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5668061662288146,
"p_shipped": 0.4981448977315517,
"model_mu": 8.567388544482625,
"market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
"divergence": 0.05134224870304149,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T16:00:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3001,
"contribution": 0.19901,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2147,
"contribution": -0.14234,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1898,
"contribution": -0.12587,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1495,
"contribution": 0.09914,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.1458,
"contribution": 0.09668,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
}
]