Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

Sat 9/5 · 5:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 7.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 51% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 52% under · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Bullpen leans under38%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games31%

Starting pitchers leans under14%

Recent call-ups in both lineupsagainst the under11%

Backup catcher starting6%

Market: Under 7.0 runs at -110 (pinnacle, quoted 4:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~7.6 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor Under 7.0 runs -110 → closed -112 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpenExtra innings yesterdayPost-doubleheader lineup riskSeptember call-up lineupHigh-strikeout umpireStarter threw 105+ pitches last start

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.467429209217095,
  "p_shipped": 0.4979304397402043,
  "model_mu": 3.935466698541408,
  "market_p": 0.5116883116883117,
  "divergence": -0.04425910247121673,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.3298,
    "contribution": -0.11958,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.295,
    "contribution": -0.10697,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.2318,
    "contribution": -0.08405,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~9 mph net",
    "share": 0.0823,
    "contribution": -0.02983,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter threw 105+ pitches last start",
    "share": 0.0611,
    "contribution": 0.02214,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_prev_heavy",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T21:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.46845670583228766,
  "p_shipped": 0.4842399037972862,
  "model_mu": 4.488976277580616,
  "market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
  "divergence": -0.030251304503629728,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T21:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.4186,
    "contribution": -0.15004,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.2345,
    "contribution": -0.08405,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.209,
    "contribution": -0.0749,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~10 mph net",
    "share": 0.0762,
    "contribution": -0.02732,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter threw 105+ pitches last start",
    "share": 0.0618,
    "contribution": 0.02214,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_prev_heavy",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.40744010833432437,
  "p_shipped": 0.5052055448990765,
  "model_mu": 6.387213243459486,
  "market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
  "divergence": -0.11833308754196431,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 6.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
    "share": 0.3813,
    "contribution": -0.22973,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3481,
    "contribution": -0.20972,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.1388,
    "contribution": -0.0836,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.112,
    "contribution": 0.06747,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_recent_debuts",
     "h_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives pitchers the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.0199,
    "contribution": -0.01198,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T21:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3971053775741062,
  "p_shipped": 0.47702460401812674,
  "model_mu": 7.575868650092295,
  "market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
  "divergence": -0.09389719311998124,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 7.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T21:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
    "share": 0.3818,
    "contribution": -0.22973,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3057,
    "contribution": -0.18393,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.1389,
    "contribution": -0.0836,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1121,
    "contribution": 0.06747,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_recent_debuts",
     "h_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0615,
    "contribution": -0.037,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]