Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.3957072803934568,
"p_shipped": 0.46125830918644783,
"model_mu": 4.108249248307749,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": -0.08491287464530295,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2564,
"contribution": -0.25203,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 30.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2381,
"contribution": -0.23402,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_il_return",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "91\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2295,
"contribution": 0.22552,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1297,
"contribution": -0.12747,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0836,
"contribution": -0.08217,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0627,
"contribution": 0.06164,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4645591127828375,
"p_shipped": 0.5087566091689616,
"model_mu": 4.427143668264832,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.03544088721716249,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 30.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.4392,
"contribution": -0.33815,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2681,
"contribution": 0.20638,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1656,
"contribution": -0.12747,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0801,
"contribution": 0.06164,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0471,
"contribution": -0.03627,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4683925938770524,
"p_shipped": 0.492746970302772,
"model_mu": 7.673489994694645,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": -0.01489789455482432,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 30.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.4462,
"contribution": -0.40063,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "91\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1808,
"contribution": 0.16237,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1777,
"contribution": -0.15954,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1082,
"contribution": 0.09714,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.0871,
"contribution": 0.07817,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.490960295707855,
"p_shipped": 0.4883100783311824,
"model_mu": 8.855812576982265,
"market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
"divergence": -4.227498623243786e-05,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 30.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.5035,
"contribution": -0.46842,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_prev_pitches",
"a_sp_opener"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1598,
"contribution": 0.14868,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1414,
"contribution": -0.13151,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1044,
"contribution": 0.09714,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
"share": 0.0909,
"contribution": 0.08454,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof"
]
}
]
}
]