Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.42213532531650433,
"p_shipped": 0.48394890033102916,
"model_mu": 3.8814487961507145,
"market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
"divergence": -0.07657268501941306,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3616,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.3417,
"contribution": -0.12171,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1608,
"contribution": -0.05729,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0959,
"contribution": 0.03417,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.022,
"contribution": -0.00785,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0179,
"contribution": -0.00637,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_opener"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T17:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.43774611258605023,
"p_shipped": 0.5185675319150527,
"model_mu": 4.53785888956689,
"market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
"divergence": -0.08544976370260948,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T17:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.5589,
"contribution": -0.12171,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.206,
"contribution": -0.04486,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1553,
"contribution": -0.03383,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0437,
"contribution": -0.00952,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0361,
"contribution": -0.00785,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5246772520851088,
"p_shipped": 0.4963686550775156,
"model_mu": 7.913295049127454,
"market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
"divergence": 0.013109128691792593,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2695,
"contribution": 0.16539,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2408,
"contribution": -0.14777,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2146,
"contribution": 0.13167,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1099,
"contribution": 0.06747,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_recent_debuts",
"h_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0967,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Early-season sample on the home starter (1 start)",
"share": 0.0684,
"contribution": -0.042,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T17:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5397086712653445,
"p_shipped": 0.4828754452865953,
"model_mu": 9.343015442675487,
"market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
"divergence": 0.055172588791117694,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T17:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.277,
"contribution": 0.13167,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2415,
"contribution": -0.11482,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2381,
"contribution": 0.11321,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1419,
"contribution": 0.06747,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_recent_debuts",
"h_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1015,
"contribution": 0.04824,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
}
]
}
]