Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

Sat 9/19 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.0

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 48% · stake 1u

TOTAL · OVER 9.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 52%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 17-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Both teams above league average in home runs, last 30 games36%

Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the away team25%

87°F — heat carries the ball22%

The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches12%

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over5%

Market: First-5-innings Over 5.0 at +101 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~6.6 runs · divergence 17 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpen

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6452058952302027,
  "p_shipped": 0.5198917559529385,
  "model_mu": 5.077379371774288,
  "market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
  "divergence": 0.13099400892529312,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3579,
    "contribution": 0.25462,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2927,
    "contribution": 0.20817,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1481,
    "contribution": 0.10537,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1396,
    "contribution": 0.09927,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0617,
    "contribution": -0.0439,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6536756603482781,
  "p_shipped": 0.48862770911135783,
  "model_mu": 6.556046076587582,
  "market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
  "divergence": 0.1730555053095183,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3585,
    "contribution": 0.30324,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2461,
    "contribution": 0.20817,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.219,
    "contribution": 0.18521,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1246,
    "contribution": 0.10537,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0519,
    "contribution": -0.0439,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5802563483011721,
  "p_shipped": 0.503551815586999,
  "model_mu": 9.26728728068996,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": 0.06354683673304873,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.6139,
    "contribution": 0.31525,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
    "share": 0.1219,
    "contribution": 0.06261,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.0968,
    "contribution": -0.04968,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0912,
    "contribution": 0.04682,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.0763,
    "contribution": 0.03916,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6046513808975936,
  "p_shipped": 0.5008110489360474,
  "model_mu": 10.875991171731355,
  "market_p": 0.5244215938303342,
  "divergence": 0.08022978706725947,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.655,
    "contribution": 0.34985,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
    "share": 0.1172,
    "contribution": 0.06261,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0877,
    "contribution": 0.04682,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.0733,
    "contribution": 0.03916,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0669,
    "contribution": -0.03571,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]