Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

Sat 9/5 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.0

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 49%

TOTAL

no lean

model 50% over · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

89°F — heat carries the ball53%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games19%

Walk-prone umpire zone13%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the home team11%

Starting pitchers leans over5%

Market: First-5-innings Over 5.0 at -103 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~6.2 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade B. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor First-5 Over 5.0 -103 → closed -103 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

none detected for this game

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6147438761030356,
  "p_shipped": 0.5057202515025996,
  "model_mu": 5.46911021027976,
  "market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
  "divergence": 0.1302077936288088,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.4539,
    "contribution": 0.25819,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.204,
    "contribution": 0.11604,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1478,
    "contribution": 0.08409,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1074,
    "contribution": 0.06111,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0869,
    "contribution": 0.0494,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T21:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5811477756084856,
  "p_shipped": 0.507728735300935,
  "model_mu": 6.181089728755255,
  "market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
  "divergence": 0.09019170325706449,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T21:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.5286,
    "contribution": 0.24736,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1882,
    "contribution": 0.0881,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1306,
    "contribution": 0.06111,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1056,
    "contribution": 0.0494,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.047,
    "contribution": 0.02202,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5406906445763539,
  "p_shipped": 0.5034062942306582,
  "model_mu": 9.119020794572199,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.04069064457635385,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.3472,
    "contribution": 0.13718,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2115,
    "contribution": 0.08356,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 10.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1998,
    "contribution": -0.07893,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1522,
    "contribution": 0.06014,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0893,
    "contribution": -0.03526,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T21:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5329734265171867,
  "p_shipped": 0.4981416000644775,
  "model_mu": 10.140804643238795,
  "market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
  "divergence": 0.02397599721127408,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T21:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.3465,
    "contribution": 0.13718,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2111,
    "contribution": 0.08356,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 10.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1994,
    "contribution": -0.07893,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1384,
    "contribution": 0.05481,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1046,
    "contribution": -0.04142,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]