Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5913941738140528,
"p_shipped": 0.509766647701742,
"model_mu": 4.558260953986252,
"market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
"divergence": 0.09527014280630086,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3114,
"contribution": 0.12602,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2255,
"contribution": 0.09123,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.2081,
"contribution": 0.08422,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
"share": 0.1395,
"contribution": 0.05644,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1155,
"contribution": 0.04673,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T15:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5940397036986141,
"p_shipped": 0.49886011596799584,
"model_mu": 5.39409810872521,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": 0.10825159000352375,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T15:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3899,
"contribution": 0.15809,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.225,
"contribution": 0.09123,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
"share": 0.1392,
"contribution": 0.05644,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1307,
"contribution": 0.053,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1152,
"contribution": 0.04673,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4943729642737742,
"p_shipped": 0.4955124925704696,
"model_mu": 8.119471042323228,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.005627035726225804,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.4562,
"contribution": -0.23545,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.2564,
"contribution": 0.13233,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1422,
"contribution": 0.07338,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.09,
"contribution": 0.04643,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0552,
"contribution": 0.02849,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T15:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4956329583849823,
"p_shipped": 0.48430369642105187,
"model_mu": 9.229322839708393,
"market_p": 0.493573264781491,
"divergence": 0.002059693603491286,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T15:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.4499,
"contribution": -0.23545,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.2529,
"contribution": 0.13233,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1402,
"contribution": 0.07338,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
"share": 0.0887,
"contribution": 0.04643,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0682,
"contribution": 0.03571,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
}
]