Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

Fri 9/18 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: projected

TOTAL · UNDER 8.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 49%

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 48% under · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Offense profile leans under36%

Bullpen leans under — mostly the home team27%

Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than mostagainst the under20%

The home starter has thrown 70 pitches over 30 daysagainst the under9%

Light travel this week for the away teamagainst the under7%

Market: Under 8.5 runs at -104 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · model expects ~7.4 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpen

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time.

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 4.5 runs under its closing total — 4 runs against a total of 8.5. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5190726570364197,
  "p_shipped": 0.516452640976216,
  "model_mu": 4.321784648362608,
  "market_p": 0.5194805194805195,
  "divergence": -0.00040786244409984906,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 70 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.4079,
    "contribution": 0.10631,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~7 mph net",
    "share": 0.2555,
    "contribution": -0.0666,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.2056,
    "contribution": 0.05359,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0866,
    "contribution": 0.02258,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "h_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0444,
    "contribution": -0.01157,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4422990047052785,
  "p_shipped": 0.49163316360832954,
  "model_mu": 7.3971439066845734,
  "market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
  "divergence": -0.06416094361513491,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under",
    "share": 0.3585,
    "contribution": -0.21988,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2749,
    "contribution": -0.16862,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.2028,
    "contribution": 0.12438,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 70 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.0945,
    "contribution": 0.05797,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.0693,
    "contribution": 0.0425,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]