Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5383645987645064,
"p_shipped": 0.5310418912909074,
"model_mu": 4.093430732927887,
"market_p": 0.5322997416020672,
"divergence": 0.006064857162439208,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.3152,
"contribution": 0.101,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2497,
"contribution": 0.08001,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2099,
"contribution": 0.06727,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1347,
"contribution": -0.04316,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
"share": 0.0845,
"contribution": -0.02707,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.0059,
"contribution": 0.00189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5168803797148114,
"p_shipped": 0.49384973976701246,
"model_mu": 4.953335727309856,
"market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
"divergence": 0.020756348707059447,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.4016,
"contribution": 0.10879,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2954,
"contribution": 0.08001,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1487,
"contribution": 0.04029,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
"share": 0.0999,
"contribution": -0.02707,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0473,
"contribution": -0.01282,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.007,
"contribution": 0.00189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.3889978131896364,
"p_shipped": 0.48527470106087056,
"model_mu": 6.597954776032448,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": -0.1045422384899502,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3004,
"contribution": -0.2213,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2622,
"contribution": -0.19315,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1635,
"contribution": -0.12043,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1611,
"contribution": 0.1187,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1129,
"contribution": -0.0832,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bf_per_start",
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_prev_pitches"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.3874002997764315,
"p_shipped": 0.46718669296843035,
"model_mu": 7.769042625084422,
"market_p": 0.47557840616966585,
"divergence": -0.08817810639323437,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T22:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2783,
"contribution": -0.19881,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2704,
"contribution": -0.19315,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1686,
"contribution": -0.12043,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1662,
"contribution": 0.1187,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1165,
"contribution": -0.0832,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bf_per_start",
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_prev_pitches"
]
}
]
}
]