Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6130331702364573,
"p_shipped": 0.533532609096725,
"model_mu": 4.640746517306141,
"market_p": 0.5181347150259067,
"divergence": 0.09489845521055063,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter down 1.9 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.463,
"contribution": 0.25186,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_opener",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2352,
"contribution": 0.12796,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1226,
"contribution": 0.06668,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.0937,
"contribution": -0.05096,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0856,
"contribution": 0.04658,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T21:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6183254283663006,
"p_shipped": 0.5455406661408881,
"model_mu": 5.341169335364134,
"market_p": 0.5295629820051414,
"divergence": 0.08876244636115915,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T21:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter down 1.9 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.4262,
"contribution": 0.25186,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_opener",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2165,
"contribution": 0.12796,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1435,
"contribution": 0.08482,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1275,
"contribution": 0.07534,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.0862,
"contribution": -0.05096,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5719370943435689,
"p_shipped": 0.5102765088203731,
"model_mu": 8.177035635591693,
"market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
"divergence": 0.06547714602315546,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.5411,
"contribution": 0.31732,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_gap_med",
"h_sp_prev_pitches"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.1318,
"contribution": 0.07729,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0914,
"contribution": -0.05363,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0873,
"contribution": 0.05122,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.077,
"contribution": 0.04518,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing more runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.0713,
"contribution": -0.04182,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T21:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5790979040105297,
"p_shipped": 0.49904423454016933,
"model_mu": 9.239373437626677,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.07909790401052974,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T21:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.5683,
"contribution": 0.31732,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_gap_med",
"h_sp_prev_pitches"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.1384,
"contribution": 0.07729,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1086,
"contribution": 0.06065,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1037,
"contribution": -0.05789,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0809,
"contribution": 0.04518,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
}
]
}
]