Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5129834017252851,
"p_shipped": 0.4828915941123666,
"model_mu": 4.428424536420558,
"market_p": 0.4678663239074551,
"divergence": 0.04511707781783003,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~5 mph net",
"share": 0.378,
"contribution": 0.14034,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 26.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2283,
"contribution": -0.08478,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1356,
"contribution": 0.05033,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1327,
"contribution": -0.04926,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1255,
"contribution": 0.04658,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5047213376476183,
"p_shipped": 0.4816855814621313,
"model_mu": 5.0200716221290556,
"market_p": 0.4678663239074551,
"divergence": 0.0368550137401632,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~4 mph net",
"share": 0.3732,
"contribution": 0.13449,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 26.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2353,
"contribution": -0.08478,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1851,
"contribution": 0.06671,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1367,
"contribution": -0.04926,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0696,
"contribution": -0.02509,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.507956635907869,
"p_shipped": 0.49545875640494247,
"model_mu": 8.241424358020161,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.024666147475992273,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.2715,
"contribution": 0.09989,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2502,
"contribution": 0.09205,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1458,
"contribution": -0.05363,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1268,
"contribution": 0.04664,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.1164,
"contribution": -0.04281,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_k_pct30",
"h_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0893,
"contribution": -0.03284,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5106346465861359,
"p_shipped": 0.48809493193310616,
"model_mu": 9.247433379191147,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.02734415815425917,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.2988,
"contribution": 0.09989,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2625,
"contribution": 0.08775,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1712,
"contribution": -0.05722,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1395,
"contribution": 0.04664,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.1281,
"contribution": -0.04281,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_k_pct30",
"h_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
}
]