Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5037568115024299,
"p_shipped": 0.4912061509650501,
"model_mu": 4.85502546317792,
"market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
"divergence": 0.015384718479174109,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.4498,
"contribution": 0.22079,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2624,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0964,
"contribution": 0.04733,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0949,
"contribution": 0.04658,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0736,
"contribution": -0.03613,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.0228,
"contribution": -0.01121,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5271675492675498,
"p_shipped": 0.5152574199794732,
"model_mu": 5.740930524434246,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": 0.025875559603467102,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.5712,
"contribution": 0.19653,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2257,
"contribution": 0.07767,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.105,
"contribution": -0.03613,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.057,
"contribution": 0.0196,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.0411,
"contribution": -0.01414,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5957020844674134,
"p_shipped": 0.5058807342205682,
"model_mu": 9.271812749958384,
"market_p": 0.493573264781491,
"divergence": 0.10212881968592236,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.349,
"contribution": 0.24062,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2337,
"contribution": 0.16113,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.1477,
"contribution": 0.10181,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0861,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0778,
"contribution": -0.05363,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0712,
"contribution": 0.04908,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.0345,
"contribution": 0.02376,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.617397487534429,
"p_shipped": 0.5163538842274296,
"model_mu": 10.454190746764404,
"market_p": 0.5218508997429305,
"divergence": 0.0955465877914985,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.4051,
"contribution": 0.24062,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2434,
"contribution": 0.14461,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.1714,
"contribution": 0.10181,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.0975,
"contribution": -0.05789,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0826,
"contribution": 0.04908,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
}
]