Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5209050292163385,
"p_shipped": 0.4560445366099814,
"model_mu": 4.898599808308031,
"market_p": 0.4675324675324676,
"divergence": 0.053372561683870945,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.4075,
"contribution": 0.2291,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2291,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1596,
"contribution": 0.08971,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1373,
"contribution": 0.07716,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0499,
"contribution": 0.02802,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
"share": 0.0167,
"contribution": 0.00938,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_il_return",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5415831970384138,
"p_shipped": 0.48985412556482477,
"model_mu": 5.875917108470129,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": 0.06096304199965408,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.5709,
"contribution": 0.2291,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2188,
"contribution": 0.08781,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1118,
"contribution": 0.04485,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0698,
"contribution": 0.02802,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.0287,
"contribution": -0.01153,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4550766560394927,
"p_shipped": 0.49327946591546706,
"model_mu": 8.612434164600042,
"market_p": 0.4895287958115184,
"divergence": -0.034452139772025714,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.5,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.4534,
"contribution": -0.31461,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2715,
"contribution": 0.18838,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0856,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0834,
"contribution": 0.05784,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team gives up stolen bases",
"share": 0.0643,
"contribution": 0.04464,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"a_wp_pb30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 68\u00b0F",
"share": 0.0418,
"contribution": -0.029,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4560415733855868,
"p_shipped": 0.48833734675793977,
"model_mu": 9.40658251294192,
"market_p": 0.493573264781491,
"divergence": -0.037531691395904176,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.4814,
"contribution": -0.31461,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2882,
"contribution": 0.18838,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0885,
"contribution": 0.05784,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 66\u00b0F",
"share": 0.0736,
"contribution": -0.04812,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team gives up stolen bases",
"share": 0.0683,
"contribution": 0.04464,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"a_wp_pb30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
}
]
}
]