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first pitch 6:40 PM CDT
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

Tue 9/1 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.5
B
B cards like this have won 49% over · market 47%
TOTAL
no lean
model 51% under · market 50%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 11-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Game-time temperature 83°F38%
The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games32%
The away team playing like a .624 club right now19%
Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most — fewer called strikes6%
Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the away team5%
Market: First-5-innings Over 5.5 at +105 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~6.6 runs · divergence 11 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.
anchor First-5 Over 5.5 +105 → closed First-5 Over 5.0 -122 · away
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
none detected for this game
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5826681678340317,
  "p_shipped": 0.485126526988511,
  "model_mu": 5.783516813100371,
  "market_p": 0.47043701799485865,
  "divergence": 0.1122311498391731,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 5.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.4516,
    "contribution": 0.24129,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2543,
    "contribution": 0.13587,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .624 club right now",
    "share": 0.1875,
    "contribution": 0.1002,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0581,
    "contribution": 0.03104,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_k_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0485,
    "contribution": 0.02594,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5778187374379437,
  "p_shipped": 0.4845766397132075,
  "model_mu": 6.6077446787240595,
  "market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
  "divergence": 0.10616925290186108,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 5.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 83\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.3789,
    "contribution": 0.19492,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3156,
    "contribution": 0.16233,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .624 club right now",
    "share": 0.1948,
    "contribution": 0.1002,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0603,
    "contribution": 0.03104,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_k_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0504,
    "contribution": 0.02594,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.490629181673798,
  "p_shipped": 0.49591281390823844,
  "model_mu": 9.684499930844378,
  "market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
  "divergence": -0.0067934987385732115,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 10.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.2884,
    "contribution": -0.10583,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.257,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1726,
    "contribution": 0.06333,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.1659,
    "contribution": 0.06087,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.1161,
    "contribution": -0.04262,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.48813330672551775,
  "p_shipped": 0.48854877552910747,
  "model_mu": 10.91981904330402,
  "market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
  "divergence": -0.009289373686853453,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 10.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.2965,
    "contribution": -0.10583,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2389,
    "contribution": 0.08527,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 83\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.1748,
    "contribution": 0.06239,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.1705,
    "contribution": 0.06087,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]