Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

Wed 9/2 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 52%

TOTAL · OVER 8.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 52%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 8-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

88°F — heat carries the ball38%

One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.against the over22%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games16%

The away team playing like a .628 club right now15%

Umpire leans over8%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -119 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.9 runs · divergence 8 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.0 -119 → closed -119 · unchanged

TOTALanchor Over 8.5 runs -118 → closed -116 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpenLow-scoring umpireHigh-strikeout umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.6219770469748231,
  "p_shipped": 0.528118327358525,
  "model_mu": 4.361240080565365,
  "market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
  "divergence": 0.11810107798257508,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3521,
    "contribution": 0.24448,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.2163,
    "contribution": -0.15015,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2073,
    "contribution": 0.14393,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .628 club right now",
    "share": 0.1439,
    "contribution": 0.09991,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.0804,
    "contribution": 0.05585,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.603287487420627,
  "p_shipped": 0.5455686732650555,
  "model_mu": 4.90274527342376,
  "market_p": 0.524547803617571,
  "divergence": 0.07873968380305596,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3806,
    "contribution": 0.25585,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.2234,
    "contribution": -0.15015,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1643,
    "contribution": 0.11044,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .628 club right now",
    "share": 0.1486,
    "contribution": 0.09991,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.0831,
    "contribution": 0.05585,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.616478948883533,
  "p_shipped": 0.5218756029411085,
  "model_mu": 8.370030419883467,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": 0.09976943731540966,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.2743,
    "contribution": 0.11748,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2298,
    "contribution": 0.09844,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.1835,
    "contribution": 0.07858,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1638,
    "contribution": 0.07014,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1486,
    "contribution": 0.06366,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5889321461495205,
  "p_shipped": 0.5191393948417536,
  "model_mu": 9.837164173849887,
  "market_p": 0.5244215938303342,
  "divergence": 0.06451055231918634,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
    "share": 0.2705,
    "contribution": 0.11748,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2392,
    "contribution": 0.10388,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.181,
    "contribution": 0.07858,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1627,
    "contribution": -0.07064,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1466,
    "contribution": 0.06366,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_k_pct30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]