Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5079405408748009,
"p_shipped": 0.536602861526649,
"model_mu": 3.5686513921540035,
"market_p": 0.5321336760925449,
"divergence": -0.024193135217744022,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.4071,
"contribution": -0.08203,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 27.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3129,
"contribution": -0.06303,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1462,
"contribution": 0.02946,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0677,
"contribution": -0.01365,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0517,
"contribution": -0.01042,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_elo",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.0143,
"contribution": 0.00287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T18:00:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49232708051723173,
"p_shipped": 0.5375385907904389,
"model_mu": 4.089323287832471,
"market_p": 0.5335051546391752,
"divergence": -0.04117807412194352,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T18:00:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.5892,
"contribution": -0.14251,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 27.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2606,
"contribution": -0.06303,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0762,
"contribution": 0.01842,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0431,
"contribution": -0.01042,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_elo",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.019,
"contribution": -0.00459,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.0119,
"contribution": 0.00287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.506078635298234,
"p_shipped": 0.4799443067503248,
"model_mu": 7.1862990099055155,
"market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
"divergence": 0.025358840953761008,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2682,
"contribution": -0.09145,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1874,
"contribution": 0.06388,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"a_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1646,
"contribution": 0.05611,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.1367,
"contribution": -0.04661,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1359,
"contribution": 0.04633,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1072,
"contribution": 0.03656,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T18:00:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49679272571620897,
"p_shipped": 0.4741317761582885,
"model_mu": 8.02703886883603,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.013502237284332252,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T18:00:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2405,
"contribution": -0.09145,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.2231,
"contribution": -0.0848,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1897,
"contribution": 0.07211,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1476,
"contribution": 0.05611,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.103,
"contribution": 0.03915,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0962,
"contribution": 0.03656,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
}
]