Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

Fri 9/11 · 6:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 51%

TOTAL · OVER 8.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 7-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away starter strikes out 18% of batters, adjusted — a lower strikeout rate than average41%

Park & environment leans over25%

The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games13%

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over8%

Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year — fewer called strikes6%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league average6%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at -110 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.4 runs · divergence 7 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

TOTALFrozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 -110 → closed -114 · our way

TOTALanchor Over 8.5 runs +103 → closed -103 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

High-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
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  "rung": "l1",
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  "divergence": 0.018704722086934966,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.3545,
    "contribution": 0.15736,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2901,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1538,
    "contribution": 0.06828,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "alt_kft",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0799,
    "contribution": 0.03545,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0669,
    "contribution": -0.02969,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0548,
    "contribution": 0.02432,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "divergence": 0.06652831555507155,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.4145,
    "contribution": 0.15736,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.2515,
    "contribution": 0.09547,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.132,
    "contribution": 0.0501,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0782,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0641,
    "contribution": 0.02432,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0598,
    "contribution": 0.02268,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "rung": "l1",
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  "divergence": 0.02453991335989686,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.2019,
    "contribution": -0.09667,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
    "share": 0.1994,
    "contribution": 0.09549,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1573,
    "contribution": 0.07533,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1421,
    "contribution": 0.06803,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1239,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.104,
    "contribution": 0.04982,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
    "share": 0.0714,
    "contribution": -0.03421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
    "share": 0.2271,
    "contribution": 0.09549,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1983,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "h_off_k30"
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   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.1956,
    "contribution": -0.08224,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1792,
    "contribution": 0.07533,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
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   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1185,
    "contribution": 0.04982,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
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   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]