Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45912323433862356,
"p_shipped": 0.4888574317014081,
"model_mu": 3.4955092999987927,
"market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
"divergence": -0.03958477599729382,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3219,
"contribution": -0.15562,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2501,
"contribution": 0.12089,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 27.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1552,
"contribution": -0.07503,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1533,
"contribution": -0.07412,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1195,
"contribution": -0.05779,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46156424735854173,
"p_shipped": 0.46980046362762984,
"model_mu": 4.059135283243642,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": -0.01905590768021803,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2506,
"contribution": -0.12268,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.247,
"contribution": 0.12089,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1976,
"contribution": -0.09674,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 27.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1533,
"contribution": -0.07503,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1514,
"contribution": -0.07412,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4609323706405766,
"p_shipped": 0.4995262085076655,
"model_mu": 6.941758191460203,
"market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
"divergence": -0.054531546885196513,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.407,
"contribution": -0.30512,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2435,
"contribution": 0.18255,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.1742,
"contribution": -0.1306,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1019,
"contribution": 0.07638,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0735,
"contribution": 0.05508,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4482679044678348,
"p_shipped": 0.48060018385500264,
"model_mu": 7.898215460078714,
"market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
"divergence": -0.0478760544010598,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3651,
"contribution": -0.2777,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.24,
"contribution": 0.18255,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.1616,
"contribution": -0.1229,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1328,
"contribution": -0.10101,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1004,
"contribution": 0.07638,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
}
]
}
]