Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46372791664882634,
"p_shipped": 0.45961054512466926,
"model_mu": 4.253771604898627,
"market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
"divergence": -0.019476217718098765,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2943,
"contribution": -0.18611,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2036,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1968,
"contribution": 0.12447,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_pitch_miss",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1948,
"contribution": 0.12317,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under",
"share": 0.0963,
"contribution": -0.06091,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0142,
"contribution": 0.009,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T16:30:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.40318777196901207,
"p_shipped": 0.48833793452278956,
"model_mu": 4.709021128549843,
"market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
"divergence": -0.09293625903873987,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T16:30:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.4126,
"contribution": -0.27949,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_return_vet"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2801,
"contribution": -0.18974,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1818,
"contribution": 0.12317,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under",
"share": 0.0899,
"contribution": -0.06091,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0355,
"contribution": 0.02402,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4851349905849462,
"p_shipped": 0.5085534990806977,
"model_mu": 7.661024822187336,
"market_p": 0.5128865979381443,
"divergence": -0.027751607353198093,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.4005,
"contribution": -0.32073,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2267,
"contribution": 0.18156,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1063,
"contribution": 0.08514,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitch_miss",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0808,
"contribution": 0.06472,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0741,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0688,
"contribution": 0.05508,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0427,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T16:30:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5345428966630419,
"p_shipped": 0.4840366547617981,
"model_mu": 9.318048787182498,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.05125240823116517,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T16:30:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3955,
"contribution": -0.3175,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.2261,
"contribution": 0.18156,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.226,
"contribution": 0.18145,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0806,
"contribution": 0.06472,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"a_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 15.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.0717,
"contribution": 0.0576,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
}
]