Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

Tue 9/1 · 5:45 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 49% · stake 1u

TOTAL · UNDER 7.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 47%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 12-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days46%

Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most — fewer called strikes23%

Team strength & form leans over13%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 gamesagainst the over12%

Behind the plate leans under — mostly the home teamagainst the over6%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -102 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.9 runs · divergence 12 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade A. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:38 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.0 -102 → closed -102 · unchanged

TOTALanchor Under 7.0 runs +108 → closed +109 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpenExtra innings yesterday

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5938633823383868,
  "p_shipped": 0.5713001280067429,
  "model_mu": 3.9100391978976203,
  "market_p": 0.5578947368421052,
  "divergence": 0.03596864549628154,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "fanduel",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.303,
    "contribution": 0.1425,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_days_rest_miss",
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitch_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2575,
    "contribution": 0.12112,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over",
    "share": 0.1492,
    "contribution": 0.07018,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1265,
    "contribution": -0.05951,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~4 mph net",
    "share": 0.0989,
    "contribution": -0.0465,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0649,
    "contribution": -0.03054,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.6105037844596254,
  "p_shipped": 0.5093102089166975,
  "model_mu": 4.852422994011062,
  "market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
  "divergence": 0.1221316914363696,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.4578,
    "contribution": 0.23883,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_days_rest_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2322,
    "contribution": 0.12112,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over",
    "share": 0.1345,
    "contribution": 0.07018,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1169,
    "contribution": -0.06097,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0586,
    "contribution": -0.03054,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.4315533773433012,
  "p_shipped": 0.48404004624688124,
  "model_mu": 6.659533746093534,
  "market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
  "divergence": -0.05298270513092562,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2447,
    "contribution": -0.17541,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_yday_extras"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.2375,
    "contribution": -0.17022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2284,
    "contribution": -0.16371,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1671,
    "contribution": 0.11979,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1223,
    "contribution": -0.08767,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.46796310388902934,
  "p_shipped": 0.5034657792729563,
  "model_mu": 8.04673165310846,
  "market_p": 0.5319693094629157,
  "divergence": -0.06400620557388631,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2391,
    "contribution": -0.17541,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_yday_extras"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2126,
    "contribution": -0.15596,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2068,
    "contribution": 0.15172,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_debut"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.1782,
    "contribution": -0.13069,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1633,
    "contribution": 0.11979,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]