Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles

Sat 9/19 · 3:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 7.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 50%

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 52% under · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 5-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away team48%

Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team18%

Day gameagainst the under12%

Starting pitchers leans under — mostly the away team11%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 gamesagainst the under10%

Market: Under 7.5 runs at -105 (pinnacle, quoted 2:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~8.1 runs · divergence 5 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

anchor Under 7.5 runs -105 → closed -104 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpenExtra innings yesterdayCatcher rest spotDay game after a night gameLow-scoring umpireHigh-strikeout umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4529385379047977,
  "p_shipped": 0.4882105191117816,
  "model_mu": 3.7361548855902975,
  "market_p": 0.4883116883116883,
  "divergence": -0.0353731504068906,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.5167,
    "contribution": -0.18373,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 482 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.345,
    "contribution": -0.12269,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over",
    "share": 0.0494,
    "contribution": 0.01755,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0487,
    "contribution": 0.01731,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0403,
    "contribution": 0.01432,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4651655549014399,
  "p_shipped": 0.48307518370485814,
  "model_mu": 4.431743943670493,
  "market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
  "divergence": -0.02062255879365049,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4508,
    "contribution": -0.18373,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 482 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.301,
    "contribution": -0.12269,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1138,
    "contribution": 0.04639,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0776,
    "contribution": 0.03163,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0501,
    "contribution": 0.0204,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans under",
    "share": 0.0068,
    "contribution": -0.00276,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4369334852664784,
  "p_shipped": 0.49574213027128033,
  "model_mu": 7.198956954849598,
  "market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
  "divergence": -0.06694248372576966,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4952,
    "contribution": -0.2341,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
    "share": 0.1859,
    "contribution": -0.08788,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_dan"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1295,
    "contribution": 0.06122,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.117,
    "contribution": -0.05529,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
    "share": 0.0724,
    "contribution": -0.03421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4484901220773419,
  "p_shipped": 0.4876010881753347,
  "model_mu": 8.141471803352431,
  "market_p": 0.502577319587629,
  "divergence": -0.054087197510287066,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4787,
    "contribution": -0.2341,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
    "share": 0.1797,
    "contribution": -0.08788,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_dan"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1249,
    "contribution": 0.06109,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1131,
    "contribution": -0.05529,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1036,
    "contribution": 0.05069,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]