Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46001773783663835,
"p_shipped": 0.5125349519761684,
"model_mu": 4.273732724782586,
"market_p": 0.5197889182058046,
"divergence": -0.05977118036916629,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "williamhill_us",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3681,
"contribution": -0.1759,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2695,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2236,
"contribution": 0.10686,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitch_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0768,
"contribution": 0.03668,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0593,
"contribution": 0.02835,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0027,
"contribution": -0.00129,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.425721685578364,
"p_shipped": 0.4987097049886641,
"model_mu": 7.7029369218075265,
"market_p": 0.49744897959183665,
"divergence": -0.07172729401347266,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "onexbet",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.318,
"contribution": -0.22412,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.198,
"contribution": -0.13959,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1922,
"contribution": 0.13546,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0842,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~7 mph net",
"share": 0.0813,
"contribution": -0.05732,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0778,
"contribution": 0.05482,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitch_miss",
"a_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0485,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
}
]