Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5287525534673924,
"p_shipped": 0.5393062687092748,
"model_mu": 4.528648186404786,
"market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
"divergence": 0.00555667717873265,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "85\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.543,
"contribution": 0.22943,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1526,
"contribution": -0.06448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1214,
"contribution": -0.0513,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter down 1 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.1057,
"contribution": 0.04466,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0772,
"contribution": -0.03262,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5371963963062046,
"p_shipped": 0.5352957050776833,
"model_mu": 5.279062500335166,
"market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
"divergence": 0.017816551344964293,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.59,
"contribution": 0.23042,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1651,
"contribution": -0.06448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter down 1 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.1144,
"contribution": 0.04466,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0835,
"contribution": -0.03262,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.047,
"contribution": -0.01836,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5432843517995694,
"p_shipped": 0.5155192784357393,
"model_mu": 8.257019433941986,
"market_p": 0.517948717948718,
"divergence": 0.025335633850851358,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.3687,
"contribution": 0.11366,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1715,
"contribution": 0.05288,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1682,
"contribution": -0.05185,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "85\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1655,
"contribution": 0.05104,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1261,
"contribution": 0.03887,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5504855867265075,
"p_shipped": 0.501255717940839,
"model_mu": 9.435287814678388,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": 0.044058851507998376,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.4023,
"contribution": 0.11366,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1872,
"contribution": 0.05288,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1864,
"contribution": 0.05267,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1376,
"contribution": 0.03887,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0865,
"contribution": -0.02443,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
}
]