Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5622611436314114,
"p_shipped": 0.5311407453430708,
"model_mu": 4.833400324547956,
"market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
"divergence": 0.040297319342005755,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3712,
"contribution": 0.16803,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 81\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2695,
"contribution": 0.12199,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1651,
"contribution": 0.07475,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1205,
"contribution": -0.05455,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0737,
"contribution": -0.03336,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5465995159279827,
"p_shipped": 0.4991493450817223,
"model_mu": 5.355382711422397,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": 0.05305946424839614,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.4248,
"contribution": 0.16803,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2295,
"contribution": 0.09079,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1337,
"contribution": -0.05288,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1155,
"contribution": 0.04569,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0965,
"contribution": -0.03817,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5646195774492424,
"p_shipped": 0.505146491548416,
"model_mu": 8.446623109967513,
"market_p": 0.502577319587629,
"divergence": 0.06204225786161344,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.3398,
"contribution": 0.13759,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.2047,
"contribution": 0.08287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1858,
"contribution": -0.07525,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.1755,
"contribution": 0.07105,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.0942,
"contribution": 0.03813,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.550924987076399,
"p_shipped": 0.4915716609052566,
"model_mu": 9.285248056919368,
"market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
"divergence": 0.05478102820750441,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T21:30:42Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.3217,
"contribution": 0.13445,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1983,
"contribution": 0.08287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1746,
"contribution": -0.07296,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.17,
"contribution": 0.07105,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1355,
"contribution": -0.05663,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
}
]