Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.40904609128024455,
"p_shipped": 0.4916437394069098,
"model_mu": 3.606276917179455,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": -0.09224589838383818,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 460 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.396,
"contribution": -0.1739,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2933,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1374,
"contribution": -0.06031,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0826,
"contribution": -0.03626,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.076,
"contribution": -0.03336,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0147,
"contribution": -0.00647,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T16:30:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4563154227760365,
"p_shipped": 0.5001145749522384,
"model_mu": 4.448753682008763,
"market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
"divergence": -0.0423925875598809,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T16:30:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 460 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.3611,
"contribution": -0.1739,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2509,
"contribution": 0.12084,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1779,
"contribution": -0.08569,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1274,
"contribution": -0.06135,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0826,
"contribution": -0.0398,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47618778709992543,
"p_shipped": 0.5140611950879382,
"model_mu": 7.010340375854495,
"market_p": 0.5307692307692307,
"divergence": -0.05458144366930523,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2356,
"contribution": -0.10068,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1939,
"contribution": 0.08287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1809,
"contribution": -0.0773,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter walks 11.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.161,
"contribution": -0.06879,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1389,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0898,
"contribution": 0.03838,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-07T16:30:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49110541182836276,
"p_shipped": 0.5066985527904262,
"model_mu": 8.031663601439023,
"market_p": 0.5307692307692307,
"divergence": -0.0396638189408679,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T16:30:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2285,
"contribution": 0.1042,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.2174,
"contribution": -0.09912,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2029,
"contribution": -0.09252,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1817,
"contribution": 0.08287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1695,
"contribution": -0.0773,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
}
]