Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4555437089022132,
"p_shipped": 0.490066132319379,
"model_mu": 3.769293744671022,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.044456291097786815,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 26.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3468,
"contribution": -0.14194,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2735,
"contribution": -0.11192,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2054,
"contribution": 0.08405,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
"share": 0.1161,
"contribution": -0.0475,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0582,
"contribution": -0.02383,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4929234472870015,
"p_shipped": 0.5091045874589514,
"model_mu": 4.195129129828995,
"market_p": 0.518041237113402,
"divergence": -0.025117789826400505,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 26.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3347,
"contribution": -0.14194,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2697,
"contribution": 0.1144,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2639,
"contribution": -0.11192,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
"share": 0.112,
"contribution": -0.0475,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.0197,
"contribution": -0.00835,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4671821237753507,
"p_shipped": 0.4810015777189889,
"model_mu": 7.080091288200893,
"market_p": 0.4743589743589744,
"divergence": -0.007176850583623717,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2915,
"contribution": -0.14202,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2766,
"contribution": 0.13477,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2236,
"contribution": -0.10892,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1122,
"contribution": -0.05466,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0962,
"contribution": -0.04686,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48264964357485324,
"p_shipped": 0.5074354159487204,
"model_mu": 7.761863284755321,
"market_p": 0.5307692307692307,
"divergence": -0.04811958719437742,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3024,
"contribution": 0.15727,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2731,
"contribution": -0.14202,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2095,
"contribution": -0.10892,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1099,
"contribution": 0.05717,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1051,
"contribution": -0.05466,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
}
]