Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

Thu 9/3 · 6:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 48%

TOTAL · OVER 8.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 11-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the away team29%

86°F — heat carries the ball28%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games22%

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over16%

Backup catcher startingagainst the over5%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +101 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.8 runs · divergence 11 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +101 → closed -101 · our way

TOTALanchor Over 8.5 runs -101 → closed -101 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpenExtra innings yesterday

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5311070430967995,
  "p_shipped": 0.4731905742742646,
  "model_mu": 4.805391537353154,
  "market_p": 0.4857142857142857,
  "divergence": 0.04539275738251375,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2988,
    "contribution": -0.25203,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "90\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2246,
    "contribution": 0.18946,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2184,
    "contribution": 0.18426,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.134,
    "contribution": 0.11307,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1186,
    "contribution": -0.10004,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0056,
    "contribution": 0.00472,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T22:00:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.588032607726254,
  "p_shipped": 0.49909502227846386,
  "model_mu": 5.781127415129405,
  "market_p": 0.48195876288659806,
  "divergence": 0.10607384483965593,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T22:00:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.286,
    "contribution": 0.18426,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2817,
    "contribution": 0.1815,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2228,
    "contribution": 0.14354,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1553,
    "contribution": -0.10004,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0543,
    "contribution": -0.03499,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5617810046500901,
  "p_shipped": 0.5006207637363536,
  "model_mu": 8.66989115405971,
  "market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
  "divergence": 0.06565697364233813,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2751,
    "contribution": 0.1824,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2323,
    "contribution": -0.15402,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
    "share": 0.1968,
    "contribution": 0.13053,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1847,
    "contribution": 0.12248,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1111,
    "contribution": -0.07366,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T22:00:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5643783570685362,
  "p_shipped": 0.48353928549126723,
  "model_mu": 9.496668731175502,
  "market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
  "divergence": 0.07594648046185237,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T22:00:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3005,
    "contribution": 0.20654,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2241,
    "contribution": -0.15402,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
    "share": 0.1899,
    "contribution": 0.13053,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1782,
    "contribution": 0.12248,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1072,
    "contribution": -0.07366,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]