SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 6:05 PM CDT

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

Fri 9/4 · 6:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS
C
C cards like this have won 52% over · market 50%
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5
C
C cards like this have won 51% over · market 48%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 8-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games37%
Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over22%
Heavy travel this week for the home team16%
The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days13%
Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most12%
Market: Over 8.0 runs at -108 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~9.5 runs · divergence 8 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.
TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.
FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +101 → closed +100 · our way
TOTALanchor Over 8.0 runs -108 → closed -115 · our way
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Heavily used bullpenHigh-scoring umpire
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5415969889540162,
  "p_shipped": 0.48211173808119173,
  "model_mu": 4.6904539384650885,
  "market_p": 0.48195876288659806,
  "divergence": 0.05963822606741814,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3892,
    "contribution": 0.17036,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.302,
    "contribution": 0.13219,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2036,
    "contribution": -0.08912,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.0803,
    "contribution": -0.03516,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.025,
    "contribution": 0.01094,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5393114995814595,
  "p_shipped": 0.4838611193446009,
  "model_mu": 5.493655540585306,
  "market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
  "divergence": 0.05869134454269975,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3422,
    "contribution": 0.16697,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3349,
    "contribution": 0.16339,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1826,
    "contribution": -0.08912,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.0721,
    "contribution": -0.03516,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0682,
    "contribution": -0.03328,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5866692634565366,
  "p_shipped": 0.4995588176738214,
  "model_mu": 8.446987517244606,
  "market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
  "divergence": 0.08024252823802747,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3432,
    "contribution": 0.22231,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2261,
    "contribution": -0.14644,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
    "share": 0.1671,
    "contribution": 0.10822,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1348,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1288,
    "contribution": 0.0834,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5859184154920536,
  "p_shipped": 0.49801959261480994,
  "model_mu": 9.51598964825172,
  "market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
  "divergence": 0.0820623743609481,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3668,
    "contribution": 0.24645,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.218,
    "contribution": -0.14644,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
    "share": 0.1611,
    "contribution": 0.10822,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.13,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1241,
    "contribution": 0.0834,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]