Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5730555446437792,
"p_shipped": 0.5078565980678064,
"model_mu": 4.64911615192313,
"market_p": 0.5090909090909091,
"divergence": 0.06396463555287002,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
"share": 0.3512,
"contribution": 0.27389,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_il_return",
"h_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2133,
"contribution": 0.16634,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1769,
"contribution": 0.13799,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1682,
"contribution": -0.13118,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.0905,
"contribution": -0.07056,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T22:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5872539373686766,
"p_shipped": 0.49759880023573216,
"model_mu": 5.296245136133174,
"market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
"divergence": 0.08337796837642852,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T22:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
"share": 0.3693,
"contribution": 0.311,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_il_return"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1975,
"contribution": 0.16634,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1913,
"contribution": 0.16108,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.158,
"contribution": -0.13308,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.0838,
"contribution": -0.07056,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4872312249336614,
"p_shipped": 0.5186829395795532,
"model_mu": 7.314270181185474,
"market_p": 0.518041237113402,
"divergence": -0.03081001217974061,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2892,
"contribution": 0.20612,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2002,
"contribution": -0.1427,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1852,
"contribution": -0.13204,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1169,
"contribution": 0.08331,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitch_miss",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1082,
"contribution": 0.07713,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1003,
"contribution": -0.07153,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T22:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5621281807418358,
"p_shipped": 0.5100496728277683,
"model_mu": 8.419483639120067,
"market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
"divergence": 0.0582721396107303,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T22:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter down 2.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.3944,
"contribution": 0.36648,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2218,
"contribution": 0.20612,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1536,
"contribution": -0.1427,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1351,
"contribution": -0.12552,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.0951,
"contribution": 0.08833,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
}
]