Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves

Thu 9/10 · 11:15 AM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 8.5 RUNS

A cards like this have won 54% under · market 51% · stake 1u

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 48% under · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 13-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel33%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games21%

Day gameagainst the under19%

The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 — below league average18%

Defense leans under — mostly the away team9%

Market: Under 8.5 runs at -112 (pinnacle, quoted 10:00 AM CDT) · model expects ~8.0 runs · divergence 13 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.4% of 927 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.5 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade A. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor Under 8.5 runs -112 → closed -114 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Deep into a road trip (game 7+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5219179620231469,
  "p_shipped": 0.4867892297921315,
  "model_mu": 4.4708839247865395,
  "market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
  "divergence": 0.028377910343560298,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 15.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.3847,
    "contribution": 0.24425,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2404,
    "contribution": -0.15262,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1694,
    "contribution": 0.10758,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
    "share": 0.1303,
    "contribution": -0.08275,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0751,
    "contribution": -0.04771,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T15:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5029525811322398,
  "p_shipped": 0.519508916943404,
  "model_mu": 5.10954241294046,
  "market_p": 0.524547803617571,
  "divergence": -0.02159522248533119,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T15:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 15.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.337,
    "contribution": 0.24425,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2577,
    "contribution": -0.18676,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1484,
    "contribution": 0.10758,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1428,
    "contribution": -0.10348,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
    "share": 0.1142,
    "contribution": -0.08275,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3742223112829241,
  "p_shipped": 0.4906210544633706,
  "model_mu": 7.264216348150203,
  "market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
  "divergence": -0.11420956532375975,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3322,
    "contribution": -0.26761,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1991,
    "contribution": -0.16041,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1877,
    "contribution": 0.1512,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.1874,
    "contribution": -0.151,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0936,
    "contribution": -0.07544,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T15:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3576701295799432,
  "p_shipped": 0.48572769320011444,
  "model_mu": 8.006117453380833,
  "market_p": 0.4858611825192801,
  "divergence": -0.1281910529393369,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T15:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3264,
    "contribution": -0.26761,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2072,
    "contribution": -0.16988,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1903,
    "contribution": 0.15607,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.1841,
    "contribution": -0.151,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.092,
    "contribution": -0.07544,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]