Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44877173679009635,
"p_shipped": 0.4783846693728161,
"model_mu": 3.2621030784526233,
"market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
"divergence": -0.06285617018664785,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3084,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2859,
"contribution": -0.11942,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2064,
"contribution": -0.08621,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0969,
"contribution": -0.04048,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.052,
"contribution": 0.02172,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0503,
"contribution": -0.02101,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5235254529016937,
"p_shipped": 0.517419803676055,
"model_mu": 4.173556253661569,
"market_p": 0.5167958656330749,
"divergence": 0.006729587268618831,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2741,
"contribution": -0.12132,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2375,
"contribution": 0.10513,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2022,
"contribution": 0.08951,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1948,
"contribution": -0.08621,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0914,
"contribution": -0.04048,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48095968618930224,
"p_shipped": 0.5116480902783439,
"model_mu": 6.632136399588609,
"market_p": 0.517948717948718,
"divergence": -0.03698903175941576,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2424,
"contribution": -0.08523,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
"share": 0.2253,
"contribution": 0.07921,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1689,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1625,
"contribution": -0.05711,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1036,
"contribution": 0.03642,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0973,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5021101005555744,
"p_shipped": 0.5050823387544396,
"model_mu": 7.491417392229354,
"market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
"divergence": -0.017170105099952537,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
"share": 0.2755,
"contribution": 0.07921,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2737,
"contribution": -0.07872,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1986,
"contribution": -0.05711,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1267,
"contribution": 0.03642,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1255,
"contribution": 0.03609,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
}
]