Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5127470476674417,
"p_shipped": 0.5129730448221995,
"model_mu": 5.0381825202807775,
"market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
"divergence": 0.003703120018862971,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~9 mph net",
"share": 0.3895,
"contribution": 0.22233,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2292,
"contribution": 0.13084,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2256,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.092,
"contribution": 0.05252,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.0362,
"contribution": -0.02068,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0275,
"contribution": 0.01569,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T00:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5529389476296731,
"p_shipped": 0.5386240088750177,
"model_mu": 6.178782847400924,
"market_p": 0.5271317829457364,
"divergence": 0.025807164683936734,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T00:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~8 mph net",
"share": 0.4692,
"contribution": 0.21672,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2833,
"contribution": 0.13084,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1137,
"contribution": 0.05252,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0891,
"contribution": 0.04114,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.0448,
"contribution": -0.02068,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4303397476569994,
"p_shipped": 0.49916680798215896,
"model_mu": 8.93370573230175,
"market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
"divergence": -0.0670829327553718,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 10.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2808,
"contribution": -0.13499,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2449,
"contribution": 0.11775,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1461,
"contribution": -0.07023,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1235,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.1029,
"contribution": -0.04945,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.102,
"contribution": 0.04903,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T00:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.43992827482409086,
"p_shipped": 0.49180159194830764,
"model_mu": 10.540403470750867,
"market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
"divergence": -0.05749440558828034,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 10.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T00:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3242,
"contribution": -0.13499,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2828,
"contribution": 0.11775,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.157,
"contribution": -0.06536,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.1184,
"contribution": -0.04929,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.1177,
"contribution": 0.04903,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
}
]