Seattle Mariners @ Athletics

Sun 9/13 · 8:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 9.5 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 51% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 5.0

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 10-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter walks 10% of batters, adjusted — a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under45%

The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday16%

Park & environment leans under14%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games14%

Both teams allowing more runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under11%

Market: Under 9.5 runs at -109 (pinnacle, quoted 7:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~9.2 runs · divergence 10 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 5.0 +102 → closed -104 · our way

TOTALanchor Under 9.5 runs -109 → closed -108 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Wind blowing outExtra innings yesterdaySeptember call-up lineupLow-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4442684984951023,
  "p_shipped": 0.5011559222174649,
  "model_mu": 4.225296568788332,
  "market_p": 0.5103626943005183,
  "divergence": -0.06609419580541598,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.2 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.405,
    "contribution": -0.27003,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~11 mph net",
    "share": 0.3135,
    "contribution": 0.20901,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1465,
    "contribution": -0.09769,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0788,
    "contribution": 0.05252,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0562,
    "contribution": 0.03744,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T00:30:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4484689606908437,
  "p_shipped": 0.5134046142594342,
  "model_mu": 4.941855239423778,
  "market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
  "divergence": -0.073494863598562,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T00:30:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.2 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.395,
    "contribution": -0.27003,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~12 mph net",
    "share": 0.3346,
    "contribution": 0.22878,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1429,
    "contribution": -0.09769,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0768,
    "contribution": 0.05252,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0507,
    "contribution": 0.03467,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3871383223244966,
  "p_shipped": 0.5045576152813086,
  "model_mu": 8.137628126765055,
  "market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
  "divergence": -0.11928841289401254,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 10% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.4264,
    "contribution": -0.16536,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.1696,
    "contribution": -0.06578,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday",
    "share": 0.1517,
    "contribution": -0.05884,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_yday_extras",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1433,
    "contribution": -0.05559,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing more runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.109,
    "contribution": -0.04226,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T00:30:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3911852852780394,
  "p_shipped": 0.4894975667724731,
  "model_mu": 9.236529095887983,
  "market_p": 0.493573264781491,
  "divergence": -0.10238797950345158,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T00:30:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 10% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.446,
    "contribution": -0.16536,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday",
    "share": 0.1587,
    "contribution": -0.05884,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_yday_extras",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.1446,
    "contribution": -0.05362,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1368,
    "contribution": -0.05072,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing more runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.114,
    "contribution": -0.04226,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]