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first pitch 9:05 PM CDT
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics

Tue 9/8 · 9:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 50% over · market 49%
TOTAL
no lean
model 47% over · market 49%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 2-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away starter strikes out 33.7% of batters, adjusted — a higher strikeout rate than averageagainst the over41%
Game-time temperature 82°F23%
The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 — above league average17%
Offense profile leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over10%
Behind the plate leans over — mostly the home team9%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -104 (pinnacle, quoted 8:00 PM CDT) · the full picture prices it +100 · model expects ~4.6 runs · divergence 2 points — band none.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4695782782711185,
  "p_shipped": 0.47417017767270325,
  "model_mu": 4.096514490953373,
  "market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
  "divergence": -0.01104187676764129,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 33.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.286,
    "contribution": -0.15997,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 84\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.2317,
    "contribution": 0.12961,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2302,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1181,
    "contribution": 0.06607,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0693,
    "contribution": -0.03876,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0647,
    "contribution": 0.03618,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T01:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5109208728943165,
  "p_shipped": 0.4993306913023236,
  "model_mu": 4.609368417844203,
  "market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
  "divergence": 0.017380821214729947,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T01:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 33.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.4061,
    "contribution": -0.15997,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.2311,
    "contribution": 0.09103,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1677,
    "contribution": 0.06607,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1032,
    "contribution": -0.04066,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0918,
    "contribution": 0.03618,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4983362341072007,
  "p_shipped": 0.47779734869185825,
  "model_mu": 8.413231495969537,
  "market_p": 0.4896907216494846,
  "divergence": 0.008645512457716109,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-07T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3606,
    "contribution": 0.19594,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 33.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.1847,
    "contribution": -0.10038,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.1695,
    "contribution": -0.09211,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.155,
    "contribution": 0.08424,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30",
     "a_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1301,
    "contribution": 0.07072,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T01:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5165351729670101,
  "p_shipped": 0.47251870608253743,
  "model_mu": 8.96169163952159,
  "market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
  "divergence": 0.02810329636032627,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T01:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3461,
    "contribution": 0.19594,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.2028,
    "contribution": -0.1148,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 33.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.1773,
    "contribution": -0.10038,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1488,
    "contribution": 0.08424,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30",
     "a_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1249,
    "contribution": 0.07072,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]