SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 8:40 PM CDT

New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Sat 9/19 · 8:40 PM CDT · ump: unknown
TOTAL · UNDER 7.5 RUNS
C
C cards like this have won 52% under · market 49%
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 50% under · market 49%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 8-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games26%
The home starter up 1.7 mph in his last start17%
Defense leans under — mostly the away team15%
The away team gives up stolen basesagainst the under10%
The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 — below league average. Priced in, and it went too faragainst the under8%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No umpire zone data — graded on league-typical assumptions13%
No wind reading — graded on league-typical assumptions11%
Market: Under 7.5 runs at -101 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · model expects ~6.7 runs · divergence 8 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavy recent starter workloadHot day (90°+)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. No weather read yet. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4828603107484612,
  "p_shipped": 0.5030068125225199,
  "model_mu": 3.4641734549687877,
  "market_p": 0.5142857142857141,
  "divergence": -0.03142540353725293,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.3598,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.1936,
    "contribution": -0.0693,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
    "share": 0.1723,
    "contribution": 0.06167,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft",
     "wx_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.7 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.1418,
    "contribution": -0.05076,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0711,
    "contribution": 0.02545,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0613,
    "contribution": 0.02195,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4326924896254367,
  "p_shipped": 0.5043804919605946,
  "model_mu": 6.7106006189748095,
  "market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
  "divergence": -0.08151939667947283,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2592,
    "contribution": -0.11954,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.7 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.1749,
    "contribution": -0.08066,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1509,
    "contribution": -0.0696,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1287,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1064,
    "contribution": -0.04905,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "wind_miss",
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team gives up stolen bases",
    "share": 0.0957,
    "contribution": 0.04414,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.0841,
    "contribution": 0.03878,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]