SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
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TEX 7 · AZ 6 — how the graded markets landed
FINAL

Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Sun 9/13 · 3:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS
B
B cards like this have won 52% under · market 48% · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 48% under · market 49%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel32%
Strike-throwing umpire zone30%
Day gameagainst the under22%
Bullpen leans over — mostly the home teamagainst the under8%
The away team's defense sure-handed8%
Market: Under 8.0 runs at +101 (pinnacle, quoted 2:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~7.8 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.
Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.
anchor Under 8.0 runs +101 → closed +102 · away
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Catcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)High-strikeout umpireHot day (90°+)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4955609091761837,
  "p_shipped": 0.4780929021313365,
  "model_mu": 3.7318073697278065,
  "market_p": 0.4883116883116883,
  "divergence": 0.007249220864495365,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.4095,
    "contribution": 0.13811,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.2305,
    "contribution": -0.07775,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1605,
    "contribution": -0.05411,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0998,
    "contribution": -0.03365,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0997,
    "contribution": 0.03364,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T19:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5052275286205086,
  "p_shipped": 0.5150034487179568,
  "model_mu": 4.626374865895589,
  "market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
  "divergence": -0.0064003783562356364,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T19:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.5243,
    "contribution": 0.13811,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2054,
    "contribution": -0.05411,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1403,
    "contribution": -0.03696,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.069,
    "contribution": -0.01818,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0609,
    "contribution": 0.01604,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4202357494289837,
  "p_shipped": 0.49865935847110715,
  "model_mu": 6.619166586034195,
  "market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
  "divergence": -0.08880817821959508,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.381,
    "contribution": -0.16441,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.3567,
    "contribution": -0.1539,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0933,
    "contribution": 0.04027,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.0898,
    "contribution": -0.03873,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
    "share": 0.0793,
    "contribution": -0.03421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T19:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.42850573941177894,
  "p_shipped": 0.49824448067619953,
  "model_mu": 7.801482227712762,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": -0.08820377215634445,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T19:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3223,
    "contribution": -0.16441,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.3017,
    "contribution": -0.1539,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2211,
    "contribution": 0.11276,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.079,
    "contribution": 0.04027,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.0759,
    "contribution": -0.03873,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]