Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.501569353313061,
"p_shipped": 0.4849178391284974,
"model_mu": 3.9710570320288716,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": 0.00027736364897823496,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.3946,
"contribution": -0.07836,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.3099,
"contribution": 0.06154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1475,
"contribution": 0.02929,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1143,
"contribution": 0.02269,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans under",
"share": 0.0336,
"contribution": -0.00668,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T23:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5045288331290042,
"p_shipped": 0.4718177322703447,
"model_mu": 5.004956702947773,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": 0.01874071943391381,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T23:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.3724,
"contribution": -0.07836,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.366,
"contribution": 0.07701,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1392,
"contribution": 0.02929,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0906,
"contribution": 0.01906,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans under",
"share": 0.0317,
"contribution": -0.00668,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49998927103316293,
"p_shipped": 0.5047171549635419,
"model_mu": 7.575353733485287,
"market_p": 0.5141388174807198,
"divergence": -0.014149546447556838,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2686,
"contribution": 0.08583,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2145,
"contribution": 0.06855,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.15,
"contribution": -0.04794,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1387,
"contribution": -0.04431,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.1212,
"contribution": -0.03873,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.1071,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T23:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5281411353413026,
"p_shipped": 0.5027914862107956,
"model_mu": 8.697071778604085,
"market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
"divergence": 0.008860929685775676,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T23:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3198,
"contribution": 0.08583,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2554,
"contribution": 0.06855,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1531,
"contribution": -0.04108,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.1443,
"contribution": -0.03873,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.1275,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
}
]