Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4667111208117883,
"p_shipped": 0.47295225012335096,
"model_mu": 3.436982038727359,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": -0.019076992883302113,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans under",
"share": 0.2526,
"contribution": -0.07988,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.2389,
"contribution": -0.07552,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 29.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.216,
"contribution": -0.06829,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.2011,
"contribution": 0.0636,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0914,
"contribution": -0.02891,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T00:30:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5066747484653412,
"p_shipped": 0.5272202055055717,
"model_mu": 4.1633341409758975,
"market_p": 0.5295629820051414,
"divergence": -0.022888233539800185,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T00:30:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans under",
"share": 0.2417,
"contribution": -0.07988,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.2377,
"contribution": 0.07856,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.2285,
"contribution": -0.07552,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 29.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2066,
"contribution": -0.06829,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0856,
"contribution": -0.02829,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.523848609692198,
"p_shipped": 0.49471647065584456,
"model_mu": 6.885184974254276,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.02384860969219804,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2128,
"contribution": 0.08215,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters' 30-day pitch counts in play",
"share": 0.1984,
"contribution": 0.07658,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1866,
"contribution": 0.07202,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1658,
"contribution": -0.06398,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1296,
"contribution": -0.05001,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1069,
"contribution": 0.04125,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T00:30:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5518840587394741,
"p_shipped": 0.47751886135901006,
"model_mu": 8.376840571175752,
"market_p": 0.48205128205128206,
"divergence": 0.06983277668819204,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T00:30:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2445,
"contribution": 0.08215,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters' 30-day pitch counts in play",
"share": 0.2279,
"contribution": 0.07658,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2144,
"contribution": 0.07202,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1904,
"contribution": -0.06398,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1228,
"contribution": 0.04125,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
}
]