| Game | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds · Fri 7/10 · 6:10 PM CDT |
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| Type | 💰 Good price · Strong signal |
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| Why | High-strikeout umpire behind the plate (top ~12% of umps). |
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| Our price | First-5-innings Under 4.5 -105 (pinnacle) — flagged 4:00 PM CDT, the moment the umpire was confirmed (7/10, 4:00 PM CDT) |
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| Closing price | +100 |
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| Result | win |
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| Bovada open | -105 at 7/9, 8:00 PM CDT — same as our freeze |
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Price improvement (our locked price vs the final price): Line moved +0.0 runs
Track record for this situation
| factor | similar games | window |
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| High-strikeout umpire | 584 | 2021-2024 |
Posts
flag_freeze · 7/10, 4:00 PM CDT💰 GOOD PRICE — Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, tonight
Why: High-strikeout umpire behind the plate (top ~12% of umps). Umpire confirmed.
The price: First-5-innings Under 4.5 at -105 (frozen 5:00 PM ET ⏰ caught late)
Track record: betting this exact situation — any time before first pitch — returned +2.6% over 584 games (2021-2024).
Less time-sensitive than our early flags, but sooner still beats later.
Receipt: http://localhost:8787/flags/16
Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.
Raw engine details
| claim_type / tier / publish_tier | close_edge / M / public |
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| market / side / line | f5_total / b / 4.5 |
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| frozen price (decimal) | 1.95 |
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| codes | MLB_UMP_K |
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| codes_late | — |
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| state | confirmed |
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| spawn | late — ripened after tier window (state pass 2026-07-10T21:00:03Z) |
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| close (decimal) | line 4.5 price 2.0 (pinnacle, t35_capture) |
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| realized_clv | 0.0 |
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| settled_utc | 2026-07-11T08:00:10Z |
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| edge_score | 1.94 |
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