| Game | Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays · Sat 7/11 · 3:10 PM CDT |
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| Type | 💰 Good price · Strong signal |
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| Why | High-strikeout umpire behind the plate (top ~2% of umps). |
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| Our price | First-5-innings Under 4.0 -118 (pinnacle) — flagged this morning (7/11, 8:00 AM CDT) |
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| Closing price | +102 |
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| Result | win |
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Price improvement (our locked price vs the final price): Line moved +0.5 runs in our favor
Track record for this situation
| factor | similar games | window |
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| High-strikeout umpire | 584 | 2021-2024 |
Posts
flag_freeze · 7/11, 8:00 AM CDT💰 GOOD PRICE — Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays, tonight, 3:10 PM CDT
Why: High-strikeout umpire behind the plate (top ~2% of umps). Umpire projected from crew rotation.
The price: First-5-innings Under 4.0 at -118 (frozen this morning)
Track record: betting this exact situation — any time before first pitch — returned +2.6% over 584 games (2021-2024).
Less time-sensitive than our early flags, but sooner still beats later.
Receipt: http://localhost:8787/flags/21
Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.
Raw engine details
| claim_type / tier / publish_tier | close_edge / M / public |
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| market / side / line | f5_total / b / 4.0 |
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| frozen price (decimal) | 1.85 |
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| codes | MLB_UMP_K |
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| codes_late | — |
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| state | confirmed |
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| spawn | scheduled |
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| close (decimal) | line 3.5 price 2.02 (pinnacle, t35_capture) |
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| realized_clv | 0.5 |
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| settled_utc | 2026-07-12T08:00:18Z |
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| edge_score | 1.94 |
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