| Game | Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles · Sat 7/11 · 6:05 PM CDT |
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| Type | 📈 Get in early · Tracked |
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| Why | Wind blowing in at 15 mph. |
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| Our price | Under 9.0 runs -110 (pinnacle) — flagged 3:00 PM CDT, the moment the forecast lined up (7/11, 3:00 PM CDT) |
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| Closing price | +103 |
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| Result | win |
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| Bovada open | -115 at 7/10, 8:30 PM CDT — 5¢ worse than our freeze |
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Price improvement (our locked price vs the final price): Line moved +0.5 runs in our favor
Track record for this situation
| factor | similar games | window |
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| Wind blowing in | 323 | 2021-2024 |
Posts
flag_freeze · 7/11, 3:00 PM CDT📈 GET IN EARLY — Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles, tonight, 6:05 PM CDT
Why: Wind blowing in at 15 mph.
Our price, locked 3:00 PM CDT (the moment the forecast lined up): Under 9.0 runs -110
What usually happens: in 323 similar games (2021-2024), the Under price got worse for late bettors. Acting early is the whole point.
If you're betting: check your book soon — the closer your price is to -110, the better. Log what you get.
Receipt: http://localhost:8787/flags/26
Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.
Raw engine details
| claim_type / tier / publish_tier | drift / M / record |
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| market / side / line | total / b / 9.0 |
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| frozen price (decimal) | 1.91 |
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| codes | MLB_WX_WIND_IN |
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| codes_late | — |
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| state | — |
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| spawn | late — ripened after tier window (state pass 2026-07-11T20:00:18Z) |
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| close (decimal) | line 8.5 price 2.03 (pinnacle, t35_capture) |
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| realized_clv | 0.5 |
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| settled_utc | 2026-07-12T08:00:18Z |
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| edge_score | — |
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