| Game | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds · Sun 7/12 · 12:40 PM CDT |
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| Type | 📈 Get in early · Tracked |
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| Why | High-strikeout umpire behind the plate (top ~2% of umps). |
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| Our price | Under 9.5 runs -112 (onexbet) — flagged this morning (7/12, 8:00 AM CDT) |
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| Closing price | +116 |
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| Result | loss |
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| Bovada open | -105 at 7/11, 6:00 PM CDT — opened at a different line (9.0 vs 9.5 frozen) — gap not comparable |
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Price improvement (our locked price vs the final price): Line moved +1.0 runs in our favor
Track record for this situation
| factor | similar games | window |
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| High-strikeout umpire | 877 | 2021-2024 |
Posts
flag_freeze · 7/12, 8:00 AM CDT📈 GET IN EARLY — Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, tonight, 12:40 PM CDT
Why: High-strikeout umpire behind the plate (top ~2% of umps). Umpire projected from crew rotation.
Our price, locked this morning: Under 9.5 runs -112 (frozen 8:00 AM CDT)
What usually happens: in 877 similar games (2021-2024), the Under price got worse for late bettors. Acting early is the whole point.
If you're betting: check your book soon — the closer your price is to -112, the better. Log what you get.
Receipt: http://localhost:8787/flags/28
Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.
Raw engine details
| claim_type / tier / publish_tier | drift / M / record |
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| market / side / line | total / b / 9.5 |
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| frozen price (decimal) | 1.89 |
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| codes | MLB_UMP_K |
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| codes_late | — |
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| state | confirmed |
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| spawn | scheduled |
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| close (decimal) | line 8.5 price 2.16 (onexbet, last_snapshot) |
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| realized_clv | 1.0 |
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| settled_utc | 2026-07-13T08:00:18Z |
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| edge_score | — |
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