| Game | St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Fri 7/17 · 8:40 PM CDT |
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| Type | 💰 Good price · Strong signal |
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| Why | High-strikeout umpire behind the plate (top ~3% of umps). |
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| Our price | First-5-innings Under 5.0 -118 (pinnacle) — flagged 5:00 PM CDT, the moment the umpire was confirmed (7/17, 5:00 PM CDT) |
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| Closing price | +105 |
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| Result | push |
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| Bovada open | +110 at 7/17, 6:00 AM CDT — opened at a different line (4.5 vs 5.0 frozen) — gap not comparable |
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Price improvement (our locked price vs the final price): Line moved +0.0 runs
Track record for this situation
| factor | similar games | window |
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| High-strikeout umpire | 584 | 2021-2024 |
Posts
flag_freeze · 7/17, 5:00 PM CDT💰 GOOD PRICE — St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks, tonight, 8:40 PM CDT
Why: High-strikeout umpire behind the plate (top ~3% of umps). Umpire confirmed.
The price: First-5-innings Under 5.0 at -118 (frozen 5:00 PM CDT, the moment the umpire was confirmed)
Track record: betting this exact situation — any time before first pitch — returned +2.6% over 584 games (2021-2024).
Less time-sensitive than our early flags, but sooner still beats later.
Receipt: http://localhost:8787/flags/40
Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.
Raw engine details
| claim_type / tier / publish_tier | close_edge / M / public |
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| market / side / line | f5_total / b / 5.0 |
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| frozen price (decimal) | 1.85 |
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| codes | MLB_UMP_K |
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| codes_late | — |
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| state | confirmed |
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| spawn | late — ripened after tier window (state pass 2026-07-17T22:00:47Z) |
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| close (decimal) | line 5.0 price 2.05 (pinnacle, t35_capture) |
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| realized_clv | 0.0 |
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| settled_utc | 2026-07-18T08:00:49Z |
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| edge_score | 1.94 |
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