| Game | Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners · Wed 7/22 · 2:40 PM CDT |
|---|
| Type | 💰 Good price · Strong signal |
|---|
| Why | High-strikeout umpire behind the plate (top ~4% of umps). |
|---|
| Our price | First-5-innings Under 4.5 -108 (pinnacle) — flagged this morning (7/22, 8:00 AM CDT) |
|---|
| Closing price | -103 |
|---|
| Result | loss |
|---|
Price improvement (our locked price vs the final price): Line moved +0.0 runs
Track record for this situation
| factor | similar games | window |
|---|
| High-strikeout umpire | 584 | 2021-2024 |
Posts
flag_freeze · 7/22, 8:00 AM CDT💰 GOOD PRICE — Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners, tonight, 2:40 PM CDT
Why: High-strikeout umpire behind the plate (top ~4% of umps). Umpire projected from crew rotation.
The price: First-5-innings Under 4.5 at -108 (frozen this morning)
Track record: betting this exact situation — any time before first pitch — returned +2.6% over 584 games (2021-2024).
Less time-sensitive than our early flags, but sooner still beats later.
Receipt: http://localhost:8787/flags/97
Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.
Raw engine details
| claim_type / tier / publish_tier | close_edge / M / public |
|---|
| market / side / line | f5_total / b / 4.5 |
|---|
| frozen price (decimal) | 1.93 |
|---|
| codes | MLB_UMP_K |
|---|
| codes_late | — |
|---|
| state | confirmed |
|---|
| spawn | scheduled |
|---|
| close (decimal) | line 4.5 price 1.97 (pinnacle, t35_capture) |
|---|
| realized_clv | 0.0 |
|---|
| settled_utc | 2026-07-23T08:00:35Z |
|---|
| edge_score | 1.94 |
|---|