You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
Wed 9/16 · 5:45 PM CDT · Nationals Park
THE EDGE
B-grade Over 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 10 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Alfonso Márquez (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonJared Simpson —/— · Zack Wheeler 30.0/7.8
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 5 typical at Nationals Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 23.4 · away 18.1
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The total line has moved -5.5 since the grade (anchor 9).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
BOT 9 · 3 OUT
B S OUT
updated 2026-09-17T01:40:30Z ·
AT BAT
José Tena
season line pending
PITCHING
Jhoan Duran
no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Philadelphia Phillies3Washington Nationals0FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
B First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 2 · LOST
C Over 9.0 runs · landed 3 · LOST
TOTAL · OVER 9.0 RUNS
C
C cards like this have won 52% over · market 47%
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5
B
B cards like this have won 49% over · market 51%