Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

Wed 9/16 · 5:45 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 51%

TOTAL · OVER 9.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 47%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 10-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter has thrown 67 pitches over 30 days42%

Game-time temperature 80°F20%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 gamesagainst the over17%

Both catchers lose strikes on close pitches13%

Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year — fewer called strikes9%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at -114 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.8 runs · divergence 10 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 -114 → closed -112 · away

TOTALanchor Over 9.0 runs +105 → closed +104 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotGetaway day (day game, then travel)Heavy recent starter workloadStarter threw 105+ pitches last start

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6350177488505226,
  "p_shipped": 0.5527325845907641,
  "model_mu": 4.740423131616794,
  "market_p": 0.5295629820051414,
  "divergence": 0.10545476684538124,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 67 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.3834,
    "contribution": 0.32183,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_prev_heavy"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 82\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.211,
    "contribution": 0.17715,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2072,
    "contribution": -0.17392,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Both catchers lose strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1185,
    "contribution": 0.09951,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0798,
    "contribution": 0.067,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6174692496127151,
  "p_shipped": 0.5366367013035698,
  "model_mu": 5.794142908960944,
  "market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
  "divergence": 0.10325736330780555,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 67 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.4172,
    "contribution": 0.32183,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_prev_heavy"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 80\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.2001,
    "contribution": 0.15436,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1669,
    "contribution": -0.12875,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Both catchers lose strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.129,
    "contribution": 0.09951,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0869,
    "contribution": 0.067,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5599555537845426,
  "p_shipped": 0.496372488395853,
  "model_mu": 8.57150209883087,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.05995555378454265,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.4403,
    "contribution": 0.27443,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_debut",
     "h_sp_pitch_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.2052,
    "contribution": 0.1279,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1974,
    "contribution": -0.12306,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_k30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.0826,
    "contribution": -0.05149,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.0745,
    "contribution": 0.04643,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.55640153543738,
  "p_shipped": 0.4810168470048325,
  "model_mu": 10.206928659945772,
  "market_p": 0.4743589743589744,
  "divergence": 0.08204256107840563,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.461,
    "contribution": 0.27443,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_debut",
     "h_sp_pitch_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.2149,
    "contribution": 0.1279,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1596,
    "contribution": -0.09504,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_k30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.0865,
    "contribution": -0.05149,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.078,
    "contribution": 0.04643,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]